Estimated read time: 7-8 minutes
Monday kicked off with a swirl of questions for the Pac-4 Conference.
As in: Is this really a thing?
Maybe.
Stanford, Cal, Oregon State and Washington State face an uncertain future. OSU president Jayathi Murthy said in a statement on Friday that she believed that "preserving the Pac-12 is in the best interests of OSU student-athletes and the remaining universities."
A day later, Murthy said: "While Oregon State continues to believe the preservation of the Pac-12 in some form is in the best interests of the remaining member institutions, student-athletes and fans, we also are exploring alternate paths forward."
A lot of questions.
Among them:
Is a Pac-4 rebuild realistic?
Not without Stanford and Cal on board. Their flirtation with the ACC puts the plan at risk. The Bay Area schools need 12 of 15 ACC conference members to give them a 'yes' vote. Last Wednesday, they were two votes shy. By Friday, it was one vote.
Even if they're not admitted in this cycle, the threat of eventual defection to either the ACC or Big Ten makes a rebuild dicey for Oregon State and Washington State. But it's a risk the Beavers and Cougars are apparently willing to take.
I suspect that uncertainty is why Murthy added the "we are also exploring alternate paths forward" as a follow-up to her original statement.
There are some assets available to the Pac-4 (NCAA Tournament units, emergency fund, brand, infrastructure, etc.) should it make a run at this. But there are also some liabilities. The biggest threat is the uncertainty of Stanford and Cal.
One vote shy?
As another conference commissioner told me on Monday: "That ACC thing is not over yet."
What is Oliver Luck's role with the Pac-4?
He's a paid consultant, working on behalf of the remaining schools — all four. A long-time college administrator told me that when Luck walks in the room he's typically the smartest person in it. He's also well connected. That's a good thing.
Luck has ties to Stanford. Three of his four children went to school there. He's also worked in the NCAA offices, served as an athletic director, and has consulted with a variety of schools — including SMU, recently.
His first thrust is to do a careful examination of the assets remaining in the conference and how they might be utilized to rebuild.
If Luck can put the Pac-whatevertogether in a meaningful way, he would emerge as a strong option to serve as the entity's commissioner.
What schools would the Pac-4 add?
The NCAA requires a minimum of eight schools for it to be considered a "conference." It allows a two-year grace period in the event that schools leave for other conferences so the Pac-4 has a little bit of time to plot. But it would not ideally want to play the 2024 football season without at least eight member schools.
Stanford and Cal are the gatekeepers. They value academics and culture over athletics. If the Pac-4 is going to pull off a rebuild, we'd be better served looking at the ranking of the highest-ranked academic colleges over the preseason Top 25 football poll.
US News & World Report has Rice University ranked at No. 15 among top colleges. It would be a candidate. Tulane (No. 44) and SMU(No. 72) would get a look, too. San Diego State and Colorado State are tied at No. 151 academically. If those five candidates are interested in joining the Pac-4 they present an avenue to grow back to eight or nine schools.
Who pays the buyouts?
The Mountain West Conference members come with a $34 million buyout if San Diego State and/or Colorado State want to join the fun in time for the 2024 season. The American Athletic Conference members (SMU, Rice, Tulane) come with a $10 million buyout and require "27 months" of notice. The finances feel prohibitive, but I'm told those exit fees are negotiable.
Sticker price for all five schools: $98 million.
Negotiated price: You tell me.
The Pac-4 has a pool of emergency funds it can draw from but nobody is saying exactly what's left in the pool. The fund contained more than $40 million before the pandemic. There are also a pile of future NCAA Tournament units due to be paid to the conference over the next six years. But unless Oliver Luck or commissioner George Kliavkoff can layer in a satisfactory television partner, I'm not sure the five candidates would even be interested in joining.
Is the Mountain West Conference an option?
Not for Stanford and Cal, but it's among the fallback options for Oregon State and Washington State. The MWC has favorable geography. It makes sense on that front.
Its television deal pays members about $5 million each annually. Maybe two additions would boost that figure some, but that's a far cry from the $32 million in TV rights fees Oregon State and WSU collected from the Pac-12 in 2022. Those funds are the lifeblood of an athletic department.
If the Beavers and Cougars end up here they'd be contenders and theoretically have a shot to regularly win the league and get access to the expanded College Football Playoff. That is, if they can continue to recruit and fund themselves like a Power 5 school and position themselves for the next round of realignment.
"Survive and advance" is the name of the game now.
Is the American Athletic Conference an option?
Sure. The geography isn't as convenient as the MWC, but it offers an alternative choice. "The American" as its known has nine schools in the Central Time Zone. It includes some solid academic institutions (i.e. Rice, SMU, Tulane) and has a strong presence in Texas. That may be of interest on the recruiting front and may be more palatable to Stanford/Cal.
The American distributed $7 million per school last year in media revenue. It also captures four of the top 10 television markets in the country. It's reach includes 18.6 percent of the country's TV homes vs. 6.9 percent in the Mountain West.
The conference put members in New Year's Day football bowl games in eight of the last 10 years. If it's a short-term stepping-stone OSU and WSU are looking for, the AAC is happy to serve as one. Again, until the next round of realignment.
Anything else out there?
Stanford and Cal could try going independent. Particularly if they view the Pac-4 scenario as a Band-Aid and simply want to wait for the Big Ten and/or ACC to invite them.
Oregon State engaged with the ACC early, but that door pretty quickly closed, I'm told. There have been rumors about some OSU discussions with the Big 12, but they were described to me as "nibbles." Maybe that changes over time. As long as Stanford/Cal are alongside, the Beavers view a rebuilt Pac-4 as the best option. Washington State is in the same lifeboat.
When is the next round of major realignment?
Nebraska athletic director Trev Alberts gave an interview to the Lincoln Journal Star over the weekend. Alberts said the quiet part out loud.
"History is unkind to conferences that have not had the courage to expand," he said. "I don't believe it's done. It's never been done. It's more likely than not that there will be continued periods of angst. I believe that the next go-around — that's my basic conclusion — will be far more disruptive than anything we're currently engaged in. We need to prepare ourselves mentally for that."
The TV deal for the Big Ten runs through the 2029-2030 athletic year. The Big 12's contract runs through 2031. The SEC's deal with ESPN runs through 2034. The ACC's contract runs through 2035-36.
Bob Thompson, the retired president of Fox Sports Networks, told me to circle two years before the end of the deals on my calendar. The TV negotiations will start 12 to 24 months before the expirations.
"You really want to know the composition of your conference going into the TV negotiations," Thompson said.
Read more of columnist John Canzano exclusively at JohnCanzano.com.
